Severe Weather Threat Sep 11-15

The Medium Range Models Begin The Day 4 To 8 Period With An
Upper-Level Trough Over The Nrn Plains And Move This Feature Across The Great Lakes Region On Wednesday/Day 4.

Thunderstorm Development Will Be Probable Ahead Of The System Along A Cold Front Extending From The Nrn Appalachian Mtns Wswwd Into The Srn Great Lakes Region On Wednesday Afternoon And Evening. The Models Dig The Great Lakes Upper-Level Trough Swd On Thursday/Day 5 And Drive The Cold Front Swd Across The Oh Valley And Mid-Atlantic Region.

Thunderstorms Will Again Be Possible Along The Front Thursday Afternoon And Evening.

The Gfs And Ecmwf Solutions Start To Diverge On Friday/Day 6 But
Both Show The Cold Front Extending From The Mid Ms Valley Ewd Across The Tn Valley Into The Carolinas. Thunderstorm Development Will Again Be Possible Along The Front Friday Afternoon And Evening.

Although...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Will Be Possible Along The
Front Each Day From Wednesday To Friday...Forecast Instability And
Deep Layer Shear Along The Front Appear To Be Too Marginal For An
Enhanced Severe Threat.

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