Severe Weather Threat Sep 10-14

The Medium Range Models Begin The Day 4 To 8 Period With An
Upper-Level Trough Over The Nrn Plains And Intermountain West And A Subtle Upper-Level Ridge Over The Great Lakes Region.

A Cold Front Is Forecast To Move Sewd Across The Cntrl Plains And Upper Ms Valley Along Which Thunderstorms Should Develop Tuesday Afternoon And Evening/Day 4.

The Models Move The Nrn U.S. Upper-Level Trough Ewd Into The Wrn Great Lakes Region On Wednesday/Day 5.

Thunderstorm Development Will Again Be Probable Along A Cold Front Situated From The Great Lakes Swwd Into The Cntrl Plains.

On Thursday/Day 6...The Gfs And Ecmwf Remain In Fairly Good Agreement With An Upper-Level Trough Over The Great Lakes Region. The Models Move The Cold Front Sewd Into The Oh Valley And Nrn Appalachian Mtns. Thunderstorm Development Will Again Be Possible Along The Frontal Boundary Thursday Afternoon And Evening.

At This Point...It Appears That Isolated Severe Storms Could Develop
Along A Frontal Boundary That Is Forecast To Progress Sewd Across
The Nrn U.S. Each Day From Tuesday Through Thursday.

At This Point...The Details Concerning The Magnitude Of The Severe Threat Remain Unclear. Will Not Introduce An Enhanced Severe Threat Area At This Time.


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