Severe Weather Threat Sat Jun 1

An Amplified Longwave Pattern Will Exist Over The Conus Through
Saturday. On The Southern Periphery Of A Closed Low Over Northern
Ontario...A More Progressive Shortwave Trough/Jet Streak Is Expected To Shift East-Northeastward Over The Midwest On Sunday. Deep Convective Potential Will Be Focused Along/East Of An
Eastward-Moving Cold Front Across The Middle Ms Valley/Midwest And Oh Valley/Great Lakes Region...While The Front Moves Slower And More South-Southeastward Across Parts Of Tx/Arklatex.

Middle/Lower Ms Valley To Oh Valley/Great Lakes...

Likelihood Of Ongoing Early Day Convection/Cloud Cover Leads To A
Bit Of Uncertainty Into The Exact Peak Corridor Of Severe Potential
On Saturday...With Residual Convective Boundaries Likely To Modulate The Potential/Likelihood Of Subsequent Severe Tstm Development Into The Afternoon Across Parts Of The Region.

The Most Probable Corridor For Moderate Destabilization /Mlcapes Above 1000 J Per Kg/ Will Be Across Portions Of The Mid-South And Middle-Lower Ms Valley...With More Uncertainty In Terms Of The Exact Degree Of Destabilization Progressively Northeastward Across The Oh Valley/Midwest. But Even So...Just Modest Destabilization Will Be Adequate For Bouts Of Severe Tstms Given Relatively Strong Vertical Shear Especially North Of The Oh River Into The Great Lakes Region.

As The Mid-Level Jet/Shortwave Trough Shift Northeastward...With The Shortwave Taking On A Bit More Negative Tilt...Severe Potential Will Be Accentuated By Strengthening Forcing For Ascent/Vertical Shear Through The Late Afternoon And Evening Hours. Aside From
Outflow/Frontal Focused Diurnal Tstm Intensification Across Parts Of
The Middle/Lower Ms Valley And Lower Oh Valley...A Somewhat Separate Corridor Of Development Will Be Possible Near The Front Across Parts Of Il Into Indiana/Lower Mi And Oh.

Overall...Some Supercells Will Be Possible...Including The Potential For Severe Hail And A Couple Of Tornadoes. But Ultimately... Organized/Sustained Multicellular Line Segments/Possible Bows Capable Of Wind Damage May Be The Most Dominant Risk.

Arklatex To Central/Southwest Tx...

The Effective Frontal Zone Will Continue To Shift Slowly
South-Southeastward Across The Region...While Gradually Becoming Displaced From The More Consequential Synoptic Scale Forcing For Ascent And Westerlies /Mid-Level Winds Less Than 30 Kt Southwest Of Arklatex Region/. Even So...A Moist Warm Sector Airmass Will Be In Place Along/South Of The Front...And Strong Daytime Heating And Frontal Convergence...Along With Upslope Into The Higher Terrain Of Far Southwest Tx...Will Support Some Pockets Of Strong-Severe Tstm Development Especially During The Afternoon And Evening Hours. Bouts Of Large Hail...Especially Across Parts Of Central/Southwest Tx Beneath A More Stout Elevated Mixed Layer...And Damaging Winds Will Be The Primary Hazards.


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