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Severe Weather Threat Oct 9-13

An Upper Trough Is Forecast To Amplify Across The Wrn Conus As An
Upper Low Drops Swd Into Ca On Wed/D4 With Little Fanfare.

By Thu/D5...Height Falls And Cooling Aloft Will Move Into The High
Plains...With A Negatively Tilted Shortwave Trough Ejecting Ewd Out
Of Nm/Co. At The Surface...Low Pressure Is To Deepen Over Ern
Co...With A Cold Front Moving Into The Plains Thur Night Into Friday.

While Shear And Forcing Would Otherwise Favor Severe Storms... Available Moisture And Instability With This System Will Be Weak. Models Suggest At Best...Upper 50s F Dewpoints Could Be Present With Relatively Cool Surface Temperatures. Given The Strong
Forcing...Along With A Veer-Back Wind Profile With Height...A Squall
Line Appears Probable With The Cold Front.

Forecast Soundings And The Surface Pattern With Sely Winds Suggest The Boundary Layer May Be Too Cool Ahead Of The Front For Any Warm Sector Supercells. However...Hodographs Are Quite Favorable For Supercells...And Conditionally There Could Be A Large Hail Threat. However...Predictability For This Type Of Forecast Is Too Low At This Time.

On Fri/D6...The Upper Trough Moves Quickly Newd Into The Nrn Plains And Upper Ms Valley Overnight. At This Latitude...Moisture For
Storms Will Be Even More Scarce...And Potential Appears Too Low.

Finally...In The D7-D8 Period...Mid 60s F Dewpoints Are Expected
Across Much Of Tx In The Wake Of The Previous System. Modest Zonal Flow Aloft Atop Surface Selys Could Result In Isolated Hail/Wind Over Nwrn Tx.


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