Severe Weather Threat Oct 8-12

Beginning The Period On Tue/D4...Large Model Variability Exists In
Regard To The Upper Low Over The Nern States. The Gfs Is Much Slower Than The Ecmwf...Which Already Has The Low As An Open Wave Across Quebec. Regardless...Even The Slower Solution Would Likely Result In Little If Any Severe Threat...Due To Extensive Rain And Clouds Across New England.

Models Come Into Better Agreement With The Evolution Of Another Wrn Trough...Which Becomes Highly Amplified On Wed/D5 With Upper Low Developing Swd Across Ca. This Trough Then Moves Slowly Across The Intermountain W On Thu/D6...And Then Emerges Into The Cntrl/Nrn Plains On Fri/D7.

Given The Large Area Of High Pressure Behind The Earlier Ern Trough...Only A Narrow Ribbon Of Mid To Upper 50s F Boundary Dewpoints Is Forecast In Advance Of The Next System. As Such... Potential Is Too Low For Any Severe Areas...Although Some Marginal Hail And Wind Would Be Likely Given Current Progs.

Finally...As This Trough Ejects Nwd Across The Nrn Plains And Into
Ontario On Sat/D8...It Will Have Brought Mid 60s F Dewpoints Into
The Srn Plains S Of An E-W Oriented Boundary...And Beneath
Relatively Cool Air Aloft With Zonal Flow. This Type Of Situation
Could Yield Severe Hail Across Portions Of Ok And Tx...But
Predictability Is Quite Low At D8.


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