Severe Weather Threat Oct 30-Nov 3

A Multi-Day Severe Risk Remains Possible Especially On Days 4-5
Wednesday/Thursday As A Considerable Upper Trough And Associated Cold Front Spread Generally Eastward Over The Central Conus And Intercept A Seasonally Moist Low-Level Airmass.

Above-Average Guidance Variability Still Continues /Faster Gfs Versus Slower Ecmwf/...Such That Spatial/Scenario Variability Exists And Areal Adjustments Of The Risk Areas Will Undoubtedly Be Needed.

On Day 4/Wednesday...Current Thinking Is That Severe Tstms Will Be
Possible Within A General Corridor From Ok/North Tx To The Lower Mo River Valley/Middle Ms Valley...And Potentially As Far North As
Parts Of The Upper Midwest/Upper Ms Valley Pending Sufficient

As The Upper Trough Potentially Takes On A More Negative Tilt Into Day 5/Thursday...A Severe Risk Should Spread Eastward To The Arklatex And Lower/Middle Ms Valley. Some Severe Risk On Day 5/Thursday Could Even Potentially Exist As Far North As The Oh Valley And The Great Lakes Region Should Sufficient /Albeit Modest/ Destabilization Materialize Ahead Of The Cold Front.

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