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Severe Weather Threat Oct 29-Nov 2

A Potentially Active/Multi-Day Severe Risk Remains Possible For Much
Of The South-Central Conus Especially On Days 4-5 Tuesday/ Wednesday...And Potentially Into Day 6/Thursday Across Parts Of The Ms River Valley/Midwest.

Categorical Slight Risks Seem Possible On Most /If Not All/ Of These Days Given Seasonally High Moisture Content And An Advancing Upper Trough. Guidance Variability Regarding The Evolution Of The Southwest States Upper Trough...While Diminished Somewhat Over The Past 24 Hr...Precludes Delineation Of Specific 30 Percent Equivalent Severe Risk Areas.

In General...The 00z Ecmwf Still Features A Slower /Subjectively Preferred/ Solution As Compared To The Faster/More Positive-Tilt 00z Gfs/Ukmet Guidance.

On Day 4/Tuesday...Severe Tstms Will Be Possible Across The Southern Plains...Although The Magnitude Of The Scenario Is Unclear
Especially Given A Slight Positive Tilt To The Rockies Upper Trough.

Regardless...Current Thinking Is That Severe Tstms Are Most Probable Within A Corridor From West/Northwest Tx Into Western Ok And Parts Of Ks On Day 4/Thursday.

While Guidance Variability Considerably Increases Into Day 5/ Wednesday...It Seems Likely That Severe Tstms Will Be Possible
Within A General Corridor From Ok/North Tx To The Lower Mo River
Valley/Middle Ms Valley.

As The Upper Trough/Associated Cold Front Shift Eastward On Day 6/Thursday...Early Indications Are That At Least Isolated Severe Tstms Will Be Possible From The Arklatex And Lower/Middle Valley...Potentially As Far North As The Oh Valley And Even The Great Lakes Region.


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