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Severe Weather Threat Oct 28-Nov 1

An Active/Multi-Day Severe Risk Will Be A Distinct Possibility For At Least Parts Of The South-Central Conus Especially Around Days 5-6
Tuesday/Wednesday...And Perhaps Into Day 7/Thursday.

While At Least Categorical Slight Risks Seem Possible On One Or More Days...Considerable Guidance Variability Regarding The Evolution Of The Southwest States Upper Trough Precludes Any Specific Delineation Of 30 Percent Equivalent Severe Risk Areas.

In General...The 00z Ecmwf Features A Much Slower Solution As Compared To The Faster/More Positive-Tilt 00z Gfs/Ukmet Guidance.

That Said...Current Speculations Are That Some Severe Tstms May Be
Possible Across The Southern High Plains Such As West/Northwest Tx Into Western Ok On Day 5/Tuesday...With Stronger Tstms Potentially Also Possible Across Southern Portions Of Az/Nm.

A More Widespread Severe Risk Could Occur Across The Southern Plains Into Day 6/Wednesday...With All Severe Facets Potentially Possible Especially Across Ok/Tx And Perhaps Portions Of Ks/Arklatex.


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