Severe Weather Threat Oct 23-27

The Medium Range Models Begin The Day 4 To 8 Period With An
Upper-Level Trough Over The Oh And Tn Valleys And Move This Feature To The Atlantic Seaboard On Wednesday/Day 4.

The Upper-Level Trough Remains In Place Across The Ern Seaboard On Thursday/Day 5 And Friday/Day 6. This Should Help Keep Cold And Dry Air In Place Across Much Of The Cntrl And Ern U.S. Limiting Thunderstorm Development Through Much Of Upcoming Week.

The Greatest Chance Of Thunderstorms Could Be Across The Srn Plains On Saturday/Day 7 As Low-Level Moisture Returns Nwd.

Confidence In The Model Solutions For Saturday Is Low Attm. Even So...Instability And Shear Profiles Will Probably Be Marginal For Severe Storms Next Weekend.

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