Severe Weather Threat Oct 20-24

Both The Deterministic Ecmwf And Gfs As Well As Most Medium Range Ensemble Members Continue To Suggest That A Blocking Pattern Will Persist During The 4-8 Period With A Mean Synoptic Trough Over The Ern Half Of The Country. This Regime Will Foster Several Intrusions Of Cp Sfc High Pressure Into The U.S. With Mostly Offshore Flow Over The Gulf And Stable Conditions Inland.

One Possible Exception Might Be Across Nrn/Cntrl Fl On Day 6 When
Flow Will Strengthen Across Nrn Fl In Vicinity Of Stalled Front In
Response To A Shortwave Trough Dropping Sewd Through The Oh And Tn Valleys. Convection Developing Along This Boundary Could Pose At Least A Marginal/Modest Severe Threat...But Overall Risk In This Region Does Not Appear To Warrant An Enhanced Probability Area At This Time.

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