Severe Weather Threat Oct 2-6

Models Are In Decent Agreement With Bringing The Wrn Trough Across The Nrn Rockies On D4/D5...With Height Falls Into The Plains On Thu/D5.

At The Surface...A Cold Front Is Expected To Lie Roughly From Nwrn Tx/Wrn Ok Newd Into Wi By Thursday Afternoon/D5. The Most Favorable Combination Of Instability And Shear Looks To Be From Nern Ok Into Ern Ks And Mo. But Given Model Variability From Run To
Run...Will Not Introduce Any Severe Areas.

Uncertainty Increases From Fri/D6 Onward With Widely Varying
Solutions. The Ecmwf Slows And Digs The Trough Swd While The Gfs Remains More Progressive.

Perfect Prog Of The Ecmwf Would Suggest A Squall Line With Damaging Wind And Hail Threat Over Much Of Ok Into Mo...While The Gfs Shows Marginal Severe Potential Into The Oh Valley.

As Such...Predictability Is Too Low For Any Areas.

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