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Severe Weather Threat Oct 15-19

Model Consensus Is That The Upper Pattern Will Remain Progressive During Much Of The 4-8 Period With Wrn U.S. Upper Trough Gradually Advancing Ewd Into The Cntrl And Ern States...But Deterministic And Ensemble Members Become Increasingly Dispersive By Day 6.

Day 4 /Tuesday/...Lead Shortwave Trough Over The Upper Ms Valley
Early Tuesday Embedded Within A Broader Positive Tilt Synoptic
Trough Will Advance Into The Great Lakes Region While An Upstream
Vort Max Drops Into The Great Basin Area.

In Association With The Lead Impulse...Sfc Low Will Occlude Over The Upper Ms Valley While Secondary Wave Develops Through The Great Lakes.

Trailing Front Will Continue Sewd...Likely Extending From The Sfc Low Over The Great Lakes Swwd Into The Srn Plains By The End Of The Period.

Current Indications Are Showers/Storms May Be Ongoing From Tx Newd Into The Mid-Upper Ms Valley Region Along Conveyor Belt Ahead Of The Front And Develop Slowly Ewd During The Day.

Sufficient Flow Aloft Will Overlap A Portion Of The Moist Warm Sector For An Organized Severe Threat. However...The Ongoing Convection And Poor Lapse Rates Will Limit Destabilization And Overall Severe Potential.

Day 5 /Wednesday/...The Front Will Likely Continue Into The Oh
Valley And Sern States With A Belt Of Convection Persisting Along
And Just Ahead Of This Feature.

As In Day 4...It Appears Instability Will Be Too Limited For A More Robust Severe Threat.


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