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Severe Weather Threat Nov 21-25

Discussion...

The Lack Of Widespread Deep Convection Is Expected To Continue At
Least Through D5/Thursday As A Transient Ridge Drifts Ewd From The Cntrl Plains To East Coast.

Weak Return Flow Will Likely Become Established Over The Srn Plains And Perhaps The Mo River Valley After Thanksgiving Day As The Large Scale Ridge Axis Shifts East.

This Increase In Moisture May Aid Tstm Development In The D6/7... Friday To Saturday Time Period...When A Cold Front Is Forecast To Evolve Across The Nrn Plains And Midwest.

While Ensemble Spread And Differences In Deterministic Model Guidance Do Begin To Increase By D5/6...Especially With Regard To The Cold Front Developing Across The Nrn U.S....The Overall Lack Of Greater Moisture And Instability For Most Of The Period Should Preclude Severe Tstm Formation.


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