May 21, 2013
Discussion...
Series Of Shortwave Perturbations In Previously Quasi-Zonal Flow
Should Phase To Contribute To Progressive/Ern-Conus Synoptic Trough Day-4/20th-21st.
Low-Level Thetae Available To This Feature Should Be Too Low To Support Organized Svr.
System Should Move Offshore Day-5/21st-22nd...Leading To Deep-Layer Cyclogenesis Over Atlc Waters And Reinforcement Of Continental High Across Conus E Of Rockies.
For Remainder Period...Subsequent/Upstream Perturbations Should Remain Too Displaced From Substantial Low-Level Moisture For Svr Threat.
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