Severe Weather Threat May 8-12

By Day-4/8th-9th...

Pair Of Cyclones Now Over Nwrn Ca And Mid-South Region Should Reach 4-Corners/Central Rockies And Mid-Atlc Regions Respectively.

Persistent Low-Level Cooling/Ridging In Wake Of Ern Vortex Will Modulate Moisture Return In Front Of Wrn Low...However Corridor Of Sfc Dew Points Upper 50s To Mid 60s Should Reach Portions Central/Srn Plains...E Of Increasingly Well-Defined Dryline Extending From Nrn Coahuila To Wrn Ks. Return-Flow Corridor Of 850-Mb Moisture Looks Narrow And Rather Meager Based On Ecmwf.

Prind Strongest Flow Aloft With Deep Shear Most Favorable For
Supercells Will Occur Around Srn Rim Of Cyclone...Spreading Over Tx
Panhandle /Sw Ok Area Of Dryline That Is Most Likely To Have Capping As Limiting Factor.

Farther N...Weaker Cinh But Also Weaker Flow Aloft Is Fcst. These Displacements And Concerns Over Tstm Coverage Preclude 30% Unconditional Area Attm...Though Some Part Of Central/Srn Great Plains May Warrant 15%/Slgt Risk Line In Future Outlooks.

By Day-5/9th-10th...

Operational Progs Become Considerably More Diverse In Phase Speed And Amplitude Of Central Rockies Or High-Plains 500-Mb Low...Ecmwf Being Weakest...As Speed Max Digs Across Baja And Nwrn Mex Around Upstream Shortwave. Mref Variation Is Greater.

Corridor Of Enhanced Mid-Upper Flow Around S Side Of System May Overlie Dryline And Support Supercell Structures. By This Time However...Predictability Uncertainties In Characteristics Of Mid-Upper Wave...Which Extend To Low-Level Mass Fields...Preclude Specific Svr Area.

Beyond Day-5...

Ern Trough/Wrn Ridge Synoptic Pattern Should Build...Reducing Overall Svr Potential Over Most Of Conus.

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