Severe Weather Threat May 7-11

Split-Flow Pattern Aloft Is Fcst To Persist Through Period...Though
Shortwave Evolution Will Alter Its Geometry Considerably.

Cut-Off Low Now Deepening Over Ozarks Region Should Begin Ejecting Newd Across Carolinas Day-4/7th-8th...Then Accelerate Newd Up Atlc Coast And Weaken.

Meanwhile...Pac Cut-Off Low Described In Day 2-3 Outlooks Should Move Inland By Early Day-4. Though A Few Mref Members Remain Slow Outliers...Bulk Of Them...Along With Formerly Very Slow Ukmet/ Cmc...Now Join Operational Spectral/Ecmwf In General Projection Of This Feature Ewd Across Nv Day-4...Then Over 4-Corners Or Central Rockies Region Day-5/8th-9th.

While Some Svr Cannot Be Ruled Out Over Srn/Central High Plains Day-4...Substantial Enhancement To Deep Shear Should Remain Displaced From Still-Immature Return Flow Field In Moist Sector.

By Day-5...
Sharper Dryline Should Appear From Nrn Coahuila Nwd Across W-Central Tx...Ern Ok/Tx Panhandles Or Wrn Ok...And Wrn Ks...With Lee Sfc Low Over Swrn Ks Area. Low-Level Wind Profiles Will Become Increasingly Favorable For Supercells Where Lift Can Penetrate Cap...Though Mid-Upper Winds May Remain Relatively Weak Over Central Plains Amidst Stg Difluence Aloft.

Farther S Over Tx...Capping And Reduction Of Moisture Due To Vertical Mixing Each Are Indicated In Progs. Given These Concerns... It Is Too Soon To Assign Unconditional 30% Svr Density For This Day.

After Day-5...Considerable Discrepancies Appear Regarding Upstream Shortwave Trough Over Ca And Effects On Rockies Trough...And By Extension Low-Level Mass Fields And Frontal/Dryline Features.


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