Severe Weather Threat May 6-10

Pronounced Split-Flow Pattern Fcst In Mid-Upper Levels...With Nrn
Stream Well Into Canada And Srn Stream Rounding Base Of Initially
Cut-Off Lows Over Sern Conus And Near Ca Coast.

Wrn Low Probably Will Move Inland To Central Ca Or Wrn Great Basin Region Day-5/7th-8th...But Progs Are Quite Inconsistent With
Amplitude/Geometry/Timing Of This Feature By Middle-Late Day-5.

Ukmet/Cmc Still Show This Low Either Over Ca Or Offshore Day-6/8th-9th. Such Large Discrepancies Often Arise With Cut-Off
Cyclones That Have Been Parked Substantially Over Pac Data Void For A Few Days.

In Any Scenario...Return Flow And Speeds Aloft Each Appear Too Weak To Support Aoa-30% Svr Risk Day-5 Invof Lee Trough/Dryline
Developing Over Central/Srn Plains.

System May Move Across Srn/Central Rockies Day-6 Toward Somewhat Richer Moist Sector...With Svr Threat Possible Over Portions S-Central Plains Near 100w. However...Great Variation Across Mref Members And Operational Spectral/Ecmwf/Ukmet/Cmc Results In Too Much Uncertainty For Specific Svr Area.

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