Severe Weather Threat May 5-9

Models Are Trending Toward Similar Solutions At Least Through Day 6 With Regard To Future Evolution Of Upper Low That Will Cutoff Over
The Cntrl States.

For Days 4-5 /Sun-Mon/ The Consensus Among Deterministic And Most Ensemble Members Is That This Feature Will Drift Very Slowly Through The Sern States...Likely Not Exiting The Ern U.S. Seaboard Until Late Day 6 Or Early Day 7.

Meanwhile...The Upper Low Forecast To Cutoff Over Ca Will Remain
Nearly Stationary Into Day 5 Before Possibly Ejecting Into The Srn
High Plains By Day 7...But There Is Inconsistency Among Solutions
Regarding The Speed And Amplitude Of This Feature.

The Slow Moving Ern U.S. Upper Low Will Promote Offshore Gulf Winds Suggesting Severe Potential Will Remain Low Through At Least Day 6 And Until This Feature Moves Off The Ern U.S. Seaboard.

This Would Allow Low-Level Moisture To Return Nwd From The Wrn Gulf Into The Srn Plains And Lower Ms Valley Ahead Of Ejecting Wrn U.S. Upper Trough.

The Current Deterministic Run Of The Ecmwf Is Faster Than The Gfs And Indicates Moisture Returning Through The Plains Day 7 In
Advance Of The Upper Trough Which Would Support A Severe Threat.

However...The Gfs Is Slower And Ensemble Members Dispersive At This Range. While It Appears Severe Potential May Increase Days 7-8
/Wed-Thu/ Over The Srn Plains And Lower Ms Valley...Models Have Not Converged Sufficiently...And Uncertainties Linger Regarding The
Speed And Amplitude Of The Trough As Well As Extent Of Low-Level
Moisture Return.


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