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Severe Weather Threat May 29 - Jun 2

Models Are In Fair Agreement During The Early Portion Of The
Extended Period In Showing A High Amplitude Negatively-Tilted Upper
Trough Ejecting Into The Plains While A Mid Level Anticyclone
Remains Situated Near The Nc Outer Banks. The Wrn U.S. System Will Likely Evolve Into A Closed Mid Level Low Over The Nrn Rockies/Nrn High Plains By Late In The Work Week.

On Wednesday /Day 4/...
A Meridional Flow Regime Over The Plains Will Favor Sctd To Numerous Showers/Storms As Strong Upper Forcing For Ascent/ Strong Shear Will Support Isold Severe Storms Potentially Over A Large Portion Of The Plains/Upper Midwest.

It Appears The Most Probable Concentration For Severe --Including Possible Tornadic Storms-- Will Be In The Ern Part Of The High Plains. At This Time...Confidence Is Highest For This Scenario Over Parts Of The Wrn Dakotas/Neb...But An Eventual Extension In 30 Percent Severe Probabilities May Be Warranted In Later Outlooks For Areas Farther S In The Srn High Plains.

By Thursday /Day 5/...
Despite Strengthening Shear Profiles Favorable For Organized Severe Storms Capable Of All Facets Of Severe -- Farther E In A Corridor From The Srn Plains Nwd Into The Upper Midwest -- Prior Day/S Substantial Convective Overturning Of Steep Mid Level Lapse Rates Is At Least Partly Expected Over The Plains And May Affect The Magnitude Of Destabilization Downstream Over The Upper Ms River Valley.

As A Result...This Forecast Scenario Lends Considerable Uncertainty Precluding A Highlight Area For The Time Being Over The Upper Midwest.

Farther S...Models Hint At A Rejuvenation Of Steep Lapse Rates Protruding E Into The Cntrl-Srn Plains. Coupled With Strong Flow Fields And Rich Moisture...A Higher Probability Area May Be Needed For Parts Of The Cntrl-Srn Plains If Confidence Is Maintained/ Increases For Later Outlook Updates.

Friday /Day 6/
May Continue To Foster Episodic Bouts Of Organized Severe Storms In A General Area From The Cntrl-Srn Plains Newd Into The Upper Ms River Valley. Again...The Ingredients For Storms Capable Of Severe Weather May Juxtapose In Time/Space But The Combination Of Uncertainty/Model Predictability Precludes An Area Highlight This Day As Well.


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