The Gfs/Ecmwf Are In General Agreement On Tuesday /Day 4/ In Showing Strong Swly Flow Over The Srn High Plains Newd Into The
Midwest...Supporting At Least Isold Severe Within This Corridor
Ahead Of The Amplifying Wrn U.S. Upper Trough.
Models Diverge Substantially By Wednesday /Day 5/ In The Evolution Of The Wrn U.S. Upper Trough As It Moves Into The Cntrl U.S. The 00z/25 Gfs Shows A Less Amplified Solution Vs. The 00z/25 Ecmwf Exhibiting A More Meridional/Higher Amplitude Scenario As A Negatively-Tilted Trough Ejects Into The Cntrl States.
Although It Seems Probable An Elongated Mid Level Low Will Become Centered Over The Nwrn Conus By Mid-Late Week... Considerable Spread Is Noted In The Ecmwf/Gefs Ensemble Members In The Evolution Of Ejecting Shortwave Features.
As A Result...Considerable Uncertainty Exists From Wednesday /Day 5/ Into Next Weekend And Precludes The Highlight Of Possible 30 Percent Severe Probability Areas At This Time.
Despite The Aforementioned Model Predictability Concerns And Prior Day Storm Activity Exerting Influence On Subsequent Days... A Potentially Active Several Day Period Of Severe Weather Is Possible.
Therefore...An Increased Risk For Organized Severe Storms Seems Plausible For Parts Of The Plains And Midwest On Tuesday /Day 4/...Over A Larger Portion Of The Plains On Wednesday /Day 5/ And Then Possibly In Parts Of The Plains And Upper Midwest On Thursday /Day 6/.
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