Severe Weather Threat May 27-31

Medium Range Models Are In General Agreement In Maintaining Wrn U.S. Troughing Through Next Wednesday /Day 6/ But Differ Quite
Substantially On The Evolution Of The Trough Early In The Week.

Episodic Strong-Severe Storms Will At Least Be Possible With Any
Ejecting Smaller-Scale Speed Maxima Ahead Of The Larger-Scale Wrn U.S. Trough On Both Monday And Tuesday /Day 4-5/.

Isold Severe Storms Appear Most Probable To Occur Over Portions Of The Cntrl And Nrn Plains States On Monday /Day 4/ And Then Perhaps Over A More Expansive Area On Tuesday /Day 5/... Additionally Including Portions Of The Srn Plains.

At This Time...The Magnitude/Coverage Of Severe Is Not Expected To Warrant A 30 Percent Severe Probability Area.

By Wednesday /Day 6/... A Gradual Increase In The Quality Of Low
Level Moisture Is Expected From The Srn Plains Nwd Into The Cntrl
Plains/Mid Mo Valleys Despite Model Variability.

However...Considerable Model Differences Are Noted In The Evolution
Of An E Pacific Jet Moving Into The Wrn States Early Next Week With
Variability Ranging From An Open Trough To A Slower Closed Low
Solution Over The Swrn U.S.

As A Result...Substantial Uncertainty For Severe Exists By Wednesday /Day 6/ Over Parts Of The Plains Given Model Predictability Concerns With The Evolution Of The Wrn U.S. Trough Eventually Influencing Conditions Downstream Over The Cntrl U.S.


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