Severe Weather Threat May 25-29

Medium Range Models Generally Agree With Respect To The Large-Scale Pattern Through Day 6 /Mon. 5-27/...With More Substantial Differences Emerging Thereafter.


The Pattern Through Day 6 Should Feature A Slowly Departing Nern U.S. Trough...With A Second/Evolving Trough Remaining Over The Wrn Half Of The Conus.

As Vorticity Maxima Eject Repeatedly From This Trough Into The Plains -- Where A Large-Scale Ridge Will Persist...Diurnal High-Plains Convection Initiating Invof The Lee Trough Will Likely Be The Prevailing Convective Threat For Several Days.

While Some Severe Threat Will Likely Accompany Each Of These Ejecting Features Given The Likelihood For Ample Instability And At Least Marginally Supportive Shear Profiles Each Day...The Threat Each Day Should Remain Below Criteria...Thus No Inclusion Of A 30% Equivalent Threat Area.

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