Severe Weather Threat May 22-26

Medium-Range Models Are In Fairly Poor Agreement Through The Day 4-8 Period...First With The Trough Crossing The Ms Valley Into The Oh Valley/Midwest Day 4 /Wed. 5-22/ And Later With A Second Trough Crossing The Wrn Conus.

Some Severe Potential Will Likely Accompany The Initial/Ern Trough
As It Crosses The Ms Valley Wednesday -- Perhaps Most Concentrated Across The Mid Oh/Tn Valleys...But Attm Degree Of Threat Does Not Appear To Warrant Inclusion Of A 30% Equivalent Threat Area.

Model Differences Become Much More Drastic Day 5...As The System Shifts Ewd. With The Ecmwf Showing The Trough Deepening Significantly Due To Phasing With Ern Canada Upper Troughing... While The Gfs Maintains Two Distinct Systems...Convective Potential Across The Ern/Nern U.S Remains Entirely Uncertain.

Meanwhile...Models Are In Decent Agreement Through Day 6 /Fri. 3-24/ Farther W...Moving The Wrn U.S. Trough Slowly Ewd -- Its Progress Being Hindered By A Downstream Central U.S. Ridge.

With This Ridge Residing Over The Central U.S. Through Day 6...Any Severe Potential Across The Plains Will Be Relatively Limited/ Isolated.

Afterward...With The Model Disagreement Increasing Days 7-8 With
Respect To Evolution Of This Trough And The Downstream Ridge... No Threat Areas Will Be Introduced This Forecast.

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