Severe Weather Threat May 20-24

The Medium Range Models Begin The Day 4 To 8 Period With An
Upper-Level Low Over The Nrn Plains.

The Models Deepen The Upper-Level Low And Move A Mid-Level Jet Across The Srn And Cntrl Plains On Monday/Day 4.

In Response... Strong Deep Layer Shear Should Be Present Across Much Of The Warm Sector Suggesting Widespread Severe Storm Development Will Be Possible.

Will Maintain An Enhanced Severe Threat Area Extending From Cntrl Ok Newd Into Ncntrl Mo For Day 4.

On Tuesday/Day 5...
The Models Diverge Concerning The Upper-Level Low But Are In Agreement That An Upper-Level Trough Will Move Across The Srn And Cntrl Plains. Thunderstorm Development Will Be Possible Ahead Of The Upper-Level Trough From The Mid Ms Valley Swwd Into The Srn Plains On Day 5. A Chance Of Severe Storms Will Probably Exist Along This Corridor Due To Moderate Instability And Sufficient Deep Layer Shear Which Is Forecast By Both The Ecmwf And Gfs.

On Wednesday/Day 6...
The Models Move The Srn Plains Upper-Level Trough Quickly Ewd Across The Ms Valley. Although The Gfs And Ecmwf Differ On The Speed Of The Upper-Level Trough...It Appears That A Potential For Severe Thunderstorms Will Exist Across An Extensive Area Stretching From The Nern U.S. Swwd To The Gulf Coast States And Wwd Into The Srn Plains.

Even Though There Is Potential For A Widespread Severe Weather For Both Tuesday And Wednesday...Confidence Remains Too Low To Forecast An Enhanced Severe Threat Area.

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