Severe Weather Threat May 19-23

Medium-Range Models Remain In Broad/General Agreement That
Substantial Severe Weather Potential Exists Days 4-5 /Sun. 5-19 And
Mon. 5-20/ And Possibly Into Day 6.

However...Rather Pronounced Differences In Timing/Location Of Short-Wave Features Casts Substantial Uncertainty Regarding Details Of The Upcoming Scenario.

In General...The Trough Shifting Into The Plains At The Start Of The
Period Is Forecast To Progress Ewd In A Somewhat Piecemeal Fashion.

The Initial/Energetic Short-Wave Feature Should Affect The Central Plains Sunday...With Relatively Widespread Storm Development Likely To Occur Along A Roughly N-S Surface Boundary Over The Central Plains Region As The Airmass Becomes Moderately To Strongly Unstable During The Afternoon. With 40 To 50 Kt Swly Mid-Level Flow Atop Strong Low-Level Slys...Degree Of Shear Will Combine With The Very Favorable Buoyancy To Allow Storms To Quickly Become Severe/Supercellular...With Very Large Hail And Damaging Winds Expected Along With Isolated Tornadoes.

Severe Threat Should Continue Well Into The Evening Hours... Though Likely Diminishing Somewhat Overnight.

Monday...With An Upper Low Forecast To Have Evolved Over The Nrn
Plains...A Second Shorter-Wavelength Trough Is Progged To Rotate
Sewd Out Of The Rockies And Into The Central Plains Region.

Again...Timing And Location Of This Feature Differs Amongst The
Various Models...And Convection From Sunday Will Likely Have
Influenced The Surface Pattern Substantially -- Both Of These
Factors Yielding Uncertainty With Regards To The Severe Weather
Forecast. Still...Moderate To Strong Instability And Emergence Of
This Second/Stronger Swly Mid-Level Jet Streak Suggests Threat For
Very Large Hail...Damaging Winds...And Tornadoes As Afternoon Storms Erupt Across The Mid Ms/Lower Mo Valleys And Into Parts Of Ks/Ok/N Tx And Possibly Nwrn Ar.

Model Differences Continue To Increase Into Day 6 /Tuesday/...Which
-- Combined With The Two Prior Days Of What Will Likely Have Been
Widespread Central U.S. Convection/Severe Weather -- Casts Enough Uncertainty Into The Forecast Such That No Areal Delineation Of Threat Will Be Included Attm Beyond Day 5.

Still...Tuesday Severe Potential Will Require Re-Examination In Later Outlooks As Ample Shear And Instability For Continued Severe Potential Will Likely Exist.

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