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Severe Weather Threat May 15-19

Gfs And Ecmwf In Decent Agreement Through The First Half Of The
Period -- With Only Local/Limited Severe Potential Evident As The
Upper Great Lakes Trough Shifts Newd Across Ontario Into Quebec And A Second/Much Weaker Upper System Exits The Srn Plains And Moves Slowly Across The Mid-South/Southeast.

More Appreciable Severe Threat Could Eventually Evolve Across The
Central U.S. As An Ern Pacific Trough -- Moving Onshore Day 5 /Thu.
5-16/ -- Crosses The Wrn U.S. And Approaches The Plains. However ...The Models Differ With Respect To Timing And Evolution Of This Trough -- The Gfs Being Faster And Stronger With The Progression Of The System While The Ecmwf Ejects A Much Slower/Weaker Trough.

Overall...It Would Appear That Some Severe Potential Could Be
Possible Invof The Lee Trough Day 7 /Sat. 5-18/...With Perhaps
Greater Threat -- Particularly Per The Gfs Solution -- For Day 8
/Sun. 5-19/.

While Indications Attm Are That Outlook Areas Will Likely Be Required In Later Forecasts -- Possibly For Multiple Consecutive Days...Degree Of Uncertainty Within The Model Solutions Precludes A Confident Areal Delineation Of Threat Areas Attm.


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