Severe Weather Threat May 14-18

Medium-Range Models In Good Agreement Through Day 5 /Wed. 5-15/...As The Ern U.S. Upper Trough Continues To Shift Into The Atlantic And A Weak Upper Low Over Nrn Mexico Shifts Across The Srn Plains Toward The Ms Valley Region.

However...Models Differ With The Inland Advance Of An Ern Pacific Trough Beginning Day 6...And With This Trough Likely To Be The Next Weather Producer For The Central Conus...The Model Differences Depicting The Advance Of This System Preclude Any Attempt To Ascertain Severe Weather Potential Late In The Period.

In The Mean Time...The Upper System Shifting Into The Srn Plains --
And A Second Brushing The Nrn Plains/Upper Ms Valley/Wrn Upper Great Lakes Region Day 4 /Tue. 5-14/ Will Likely Be Accompanied By Showers And Thunderstorms. However...Widespread Substantial Severe Weather Does Not Appear Likely Attm...With Convection Associated With The Nrn System Likely To Be Hindered Within The Warm Sector Due To Capping...And Srn Plains Storms Likely To Evolve In An Environment Of Relatively Marginal Shear.

As The Nrn Upper System Shifts Ewd Day 5...A Surface Front Should
Stretch From The Great Lakes Region Swwd Into Ks/Nwrn Ok And The Tx/Ok Panhandle Area. Showers And Storms Should Evolve During The Afternoon Along The Front...But With Flow Aloft Invof The Front Again Likely To Yield Relatively Modest Shear... Widespread/Substantial Severe Weather Is Not Expected.

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