Severe Weather Threat May 12-16

By Day-4/12th-13th...Highly Amplified Synoptic Pattern In Mid-Upper
Levels Will Be Characterized By Ern Conus Troughing...Wrn
Ridging...And Weak/Slow-Moving Low Over Nwrn Mex. Progs Are
Inconsistent On Timing And Geometry Of Ejection Of Mex Low...And
Very Divergent With Flattening Or Amplification Of Nrn Rockies/Nrn
Plains Ridging Beyond Day-5/13th-14th.

Sfc Fropa And Postfrontal Low-Level Ridging Over Gulf Coast States...Related To Ern Troughing Aloft...As Well As Influences Of Ejecting Srn-Stream Wave...Should Keep Rich Low-Level Thetae Too Displaced From Substantial Flow Aloft To Support Organized Svr Potential Aoa 30% Levels Through Fcst Period.


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