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Severe Weather Threat May 1-5

Good Agreement Exists Among Latest Model Guidance Showing A Sharp Cold Front Spreading Rapidly Across The Srn High Plains And Off The Tx Gulf Coast From D4/Wed Through D5/Thu.

As The Front Continues East Toward The Lower Ms Valley...Upper System Begins To Form A Deep Cutoff Low Over The Cntrl/Srn Plains Or Ozark Plateau With Unusually Cool Air Spreading Across These Areas Through D6/Fri.

Current Indications Are That The Cold Front And Dryline Should
Provide Sufficient Focus For Vigorous Convective Development During D4/Wed Afternoon From Swrn Ok Into Nwrn Tx. Pattern Should Also Support Modest Instability And Shear Across These Areas That Will Prove Adequate For Severe/Organized Storms Given Anticipated
Magnitude Of Dynamic Forcing Along The Front Spreading Into The
Region.

Situation Shows Some Similarities To Recent 17 April Srn Plains Event Perhaps Displaced Farther South And With Possibly Weaker Shear. Nonetheless...The Potential For Greater Moisture Across Tx Should Fuel Increasing Convective Coverage Along And Behind The Boundary As It Surges Into These Areas Through Wed Night And Into Thu Morning.

Severe Potential May Continue Into D5/Thu Along The Advancing Front
Into The Lower Ms Valley But Stronger Forcing Appears To Become
Increasingly Displaced From Greater Potential Instability With Time
As The Deep-Layer Cyclone Begins To Cutoff Over Ern Portions Of The Great Plains.

Increasing Spread In Guidance In The Handling Of The Slowly Advancing Front Across The Ms/Tn Valleys Through D6/Fri And D7/Sat Preclude Adding Additional Outlook Areas At This Forecast Range.


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