Severe Weather Threat Mar 26-30

Ern U.S. Troughing Which Should Prevail Early In The Period Is
Forecast To Progress Slowly Ewd Into The Atlantic With Time... Leaving Nwly Flow Aloft To Predominate Across The Ern Half Of
The Country Through The Middle Of The Forecast Period.

With Surface High Pressure To Reside Across This Area In The Wake Of A Strong Cold Front And The Associated Continental Airmass Surge Through The Gulf Of Mexico...Little Potential For Thunderstorms Is Evident E Of The Rockies.

With Time...As Slow Progression Of The Upper Pattern Continues... Ridging Will Shift Across The Rockies And Into The Central Conus...Downstream Of A Trough Crossing The Ern Pacific.

Medium-Range Models...However...Differ Substantially With The
Movement/Progression Of This Trough. While Both The Gfs And Ecmwf Dig The Embedded Upper Low Swd Near/Off The W Coast Through Day 7...The Gfs Then Progresses The Feature Ewd Across The Srn Rockies/Swrn U.S. Day 8. Meanwhile...The Ecmwf Keeps The System On A More Swd Course...Turning The Feature Ewd Late On Day 8 As It Approaches The Srn Ca Coast.

With The Next Likelihood For A Widespread Convective Event Likely To Be Tied To The Eventual Advance Of This System Toward The Central Conus...Evolution Of The System Will Be Monitored In Later Forecasts.


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