Severe Weather Threat Mar 20-24

With Medium Range Guidance In General Agreement...Broad Cyclonic /Progressive Upper Flow Is Expected To Prevail Over Much Of
The Conus Through Mid/Late Week.

Initially...Little If Any Severe Threat Is Expected On Day 4/Wednesday.

By Day 5/Thursday...
At Least Some Severe Risk May Exist Across The Southern Plains Potentially Including Areas Such As West-Central/North-Central Tx And Perhaps Into Ok. Ahead Of A Possible Shortwave Trough/Jet Streak Crossing The Rockies...Low-Level Moisture /Mainly Lower 60s F Surface Dewpoints/ Is Expected To Return Northward Across Tx/Perhaps Southern Ok To The East Of A Dry Line And South Of A Late Period Southward-Accelerating Cold Front. While Some Severe Tstms May Be Possible Thursday Afternoon/Night...Uncertainty Exists Regarding The Degree Of Warm Sector Capping And The Overall Extent/Likelihood Of Any Severe Risk.

By Day 6/Friday...
At Least Some Severe Potential Could Spread Southeastward In Association With The Cold Front...Including A Broad Corridor From East/Southeast Tx To The Lower Ms Valley/Central Gulf Coast Region. Limited Specific Predictability Exists At This Juncture And A 30 Percent Equivalent Severe Risk Area Is Not Currently Expected.


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