Severe Weather Threat Mar 13-17

The Medium Range Models Begin The Day 4 To 8 Period With An
Upper-Level Trough Located Across The Ern U.S. And Move This Feature Ewd Off The Atlantic Coast On Wednesday/Day 4.

On Thursday/Day 5...Northwest Flow Becomes Established Across The Ms Valley As An Upper-Level Ridge Builds Across The Wrn States.

The Upper-Level Ridge Remains In Place Across The Rockies On Friday/Day 6 And Saturday/Day 7. Although Some Moisture Return Could Take Place Across The Srn Plains On Friday And Saturday As Sly Flow Returns To The Srn States...A Lot Of Uncertainty Exists Concerning The Upper-Level Pattern And Potential For Convection.

At This Point...The Quality Of Moisture Return Appears To Be Limited With 60+ Sfc Dewpoints Remaining Over The Wrn Gulf Of Mexico. Also...The Models Keep Convective Development Very Isolated In The Srn Plains On Saturday.

For These Reasons...Will Go With Severe Potential Too Low To Highlight For This Day 4 To 8 Period Outlook.

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