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Severe Weather Threat Jun 26-30

Latest Model Guidance Continues To Suggest Upper Ridging Will
Retrograde Across The Plains Into The Rockies Later This Week.

As This Occurs Stronger Flow Aloft Will Be Shunted Nwd Into Srn Ab/Sk Before Arcing Across The Upper Ms Valley Into The Great Lakes.

Models Differ A Bit On Timing Of Individual Short-Waves And As A
Result There Is Some Uncertainty Regarding The Location Of Possible Organized Severe.

Gfs Is Considerably Stronger At 84hr With A Short-Wave Trough Over Mn Than The Ecmwf And Subsequent Movement Of This Feature Would Undoubtedly Influence Deep Convection Downstream.

While Strong Thunderstorms Should Develop Ahead Of These Features...Predictability Remains Low Due To Timing/Strength Of Short-Waves.


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