Severe Weather Threat Jun 25-29

Latest Medium Range Guidance Is In General Agreement Regarding The Eventual Displacement Of Upper Trough Over The Nrn Rockies.

Both The Ecmwf And Gfs Suggest Upper Ridge Will Retrograde Into The Inter-Mountain Region By The End Of The Period While Significant Troughing Evolves Downstream Over The Great Lakes.

During This Transition Phase It Appears One Or More Severe Events Could Unfold Across The Nrn High Plains Into The Midwest As A Corridor Of Stronger Mid Level Flow Should Extend Across This Region.

With Increasing Likelihood For Capping To Retard Convective Initiation Short-Wave Timing Will Prove Instrumental In Tstm Development That Would Eventually Turn Sewd Atop The Mean Ridge.

However...At This Time Predictability Is Too Low Regarding The Transitory Features Required For Convective Initiation.


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