Severe Weather Threat Jun 19-23

Nrn Rockies To The Upper Midwest...

Despite A Lack Of Run-To-Run Consistency...There Is Reasonable
Agreement Between Ecmwf/Gfs/Cmc Deterministic And Ensemble Means With The Evolution Of The Upper-Level Trough Over The Northwest. Latest Guidance Is Quite Slow With Ewd Progression And Largely Indicates A Dampening Of The Trough By Late Week. Meanwhile...A Mid-Level Anticyclone Should Become Centered Over The Srn Plains With A Ridge Emanating N/Newd Towards The Upper Ms Valley/Great Lakes.

The Most Consistent Signal For Severe Potential Appears To Exist
Invof N-Cntrl Mt On D4/Wed.

Here...Preceding Days Of Low-Level Mass Response Will Enrich Boundary Layer Moisture...Yielding Moderate Buoyancy In The Lee Of The Nrn Rockies. However...Orientation Of The Trough Suggests Mid/Upper-Level Winds Will Be Meridional And With A Sharp W-E Gradient In Strength. A Relatively Narrow Overlap Of Favorable Cape/ Shear For Organized Severe Is Evident With This Area Probably Warranting Low-End Slight Risk Probabilities In The Upcoming D3 Outlook.

Otherwise...A Pacific Cold Front Should Eject Ewd Into The Nrn
Plains By D5/Thu...But May Become Quasi-Stationary Or Effectively
Push Ewd On Convective Outflow.

Air Mass Should Become Increasingly Unstable Ahead Of This Boundary Beneath A Pronounced Eml...Yielding Potentially Strong To Extreme Instability Late Week.

Although The Bulk Of Stronger Mid-Level Flow Should Lag The Front...It May Remain Adequate Along It To Yield A Multi-Day Severe Threat In The Nrn Plains And Perhaps Ewd To The Upper Midwest By Next Weekend.

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