Severe Weather Threat Jun 18-22

Nrn High Plains On D5/Wed...

Reasonably Consistent Agreement Continues Through About D5/Wed With The Gradual Inland Progression Of An Amplified Upper-Level Trough Into The Northwest.

Predictability Wanes Thereafter With The Evolution Of The Trough And An Attendant Pacific Cold Front That Should Push Ewd Into The Nrn Plains. Preceding Days Of Low-Level Mass Response Will Enrich Boundary Layer Moisture From The Sse...Yielding An Increasingly Unstable Air Mass In Cntrl/Ern Mt.

However...Orientation Of The Trough Suggests Wind Profiles Will Be
Meridional And Modest During The Diurnal Heating Cycle On D5/Wed.

Consensus Of Guidance Suggests That Timing Of An Ejecting Shortwave Impulse And Attendant Mid-Level Speed Max Is Unfavorable For High-End Severe Probabilities Attm.

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