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Severe Weather Threat Jun 17-21

Oh Valley And Lower Great Lakes To New England On D4-5...

At Least Low Severe Potential Is Evident In Association With A
Shortwave Trough Ejecting From The Upper Ms Valley At 12z/Mon.
Guidance Differs Substantially With The Evolution Of This Trough... With The 00z Ecmwf Maintaining A Compact Feature Until It Reaches The Canadian Maritimes Late D5. Even Among The More Amplified Guidance...Low-Level Mass Response In The Warm Sector Appears Relatively Anemic. In Addition...Instability May Remain Modest. Still... Given The Large Spread In Guidance It Is Premature To Consider High-End Severe Probabilities.

Nrn Rockies/High Plains On D6-8...

On The Large-Scale...There Is Reasonably Consistent Agreement That An Amplified Upper-Level Trough Will Progress Into The West Mid-Week With Spread Becoming Increasingly Large By The End Of The Period. Handling Of Individual Shortwave Impulses Which Will Be Crucial To Delineating Daily Severe Threats Is More Problematic. It Does Appear That Low-Level Mass Response Will Be Substantial ...Transporting A Richly Moist Air Mass Nwd Along The High Plains. This Setup Will Probably Yield Slight-Risk Equivalent Probabilities In Later Outlooks...But Predictability Is Not Sufficient To Warrant
Probabilities Aoa 30 Percent Attm.


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