Severe Weather Threat Jun 15-19

Medium-Range Models In Decent Agreement Through Day 6 /Mon.
6-17/...After Which Differences Increase -- Particularly With The
Inland Advance And Subsequent Evolution Of A Slow-Moving Upper Low Progged To Lie Off The Wrn Canada/Pac Nw Coast At The Start Of The Forecast Period.

Prior To That...A Deamplification Of The Overall Upper Pattern Is
Forecast To Continue...As A Low Drifts Sewd Across The Canadian
Prairie Toward The Upper Great Lakes Day 4 /Sat. 6-15/ And A
Second/Weak Trough Moves Ewd Across The Central And Srn Plains.

While Some Severe Threat Will Be Possible Across The Central Plains And Parts Of The Upper Midwest/Upper Ms Valley -- Particularly Along A Surface Frontal Zone Trailing Swwd Across This Region...Threat Does Not Appear Widespread/Substantial Enough Attm To Warrant Introduction Of An Outlook Area.

On Days 5/6...The Nern Pacific Upper Low Is Forecast To Slowly
Approach The Pac Nw Coast.

Meanwhile...Weak Re-Amplification Of The Larger-Scale Ern U.S. Trough Is Forecast As The Low/Trough Moving Sewd Across The Upper Great Lakes Combines With A Steady Stream Of Weak Vorticity Maxima Moving Across The Central Conus Into/Across The Ms/Tn/Oh Valleys.

While Some Severe Potential Will Be Possible Both Days...Threat Does Not Appear To Warrant Any Areal Highlight Attm.


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