Severe Weather Threat Jun 14-18

Medium-Range Models Remain In General/Broad Agreement On The
Large-Scale Upper Pattern...Both Showing The Central U.S. Ridge
Becoming Temporarily Flattened/De-Amplified As A Low/Trough Ejects Newd Across The Nrn Intermountain Region Toward The Nrn Plains Day 4 /Fri. 6-14/.

As An Associated Cold Front Shifts Ewd Into/Across The Dakotas During The Afternoon/Evening...Breaches In The Cap Will Likely Occur -- Resulting In Isolated To Scattered Storms And Attendant Severe Potential. However...Anticipated Coverage Of The Severe Potential Does Not Appear To Warrant 30%-Equivalent Threat Area Issuance Attm.

For Day 5 /Sat. 6-15/...The Main Portion Of The Ejecting Feature Is
Progged To Shift Into The Canadian Prairie...Though A Loosely
Associated Disturbance Farther S Is Forecast To Cross The Central
Conus. However...Models Disagree Notably On The Timing And Location Of This Feature -- Casting Uncertainty Upon Evolution Of Severe Threat Day 5.

The Small-Scale Differences Between The Models Persist Through The End Of The Period.

While General Agreement Is That Ridging Will Eventually Become Re-Established -- Likely Over The Intermountain Region While The Ern Half Of The U.S. Remains Encompassed By Broad Cyclonic Flow...Model Differences With Progression And Location Of Small-Scale Features Within The Cyclonic Flow Field Are Substantial.

Therefore...This Lack Of Predictability Of The Pattern Hinders The
Ability To Confidently Ascertain Severe Potential Through The
Remainder Of The Period.


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