Severe Weather Threat Jun 13-17

Medium-Range Models In Decent Large-Scale Agreement Through Much Of The Period...With The Prevailing Feature Aloft Being A Persistent Central U.S. Ridge -- Flanked By Wrn And Ern U.S. Troughing.

As A Short-Wave Trough Within Broader Cyclonic Flow Digs Sewd Into
The Ern U.S. Day 4 /Thu. 6-13/...Some Severe Threat Is Expected To
Evolve Across Va And The Carolinas...And Swd Into Ga. However... Attm Threat Does Not Appear To Warrant Inclusion Of A 30%- Equivalent Threat Area.

As This Feature Digs...Expansion/Amplification Of The Ern Canada
Troughing Is Forecast To Extend Swd Across The E Coast States And
Then Linger Through Day 5...Before Ewd Progression Into The Atlantic
Occurs Day 6 And Beyond.

Meanwhile...With A Trough Progged To Persist Over The W Coast...Aforementioned Central U.S. Ridging Will Prevail Through The Period.

By The Latter Half Of The Period...Persistent Ejection Of Small Scale Features Out Of The West And Into/Across The Central U.S. Will Result In Gradual Deamplification/Flattening Of The Prevailing Ridge.

Each Of These Short-Wave Troughs Will Be Accompanied By An
Uptick In Convective/Severe Threat...But Models Differ Substantially
With Timing And Track Of These Features. Therefore...Severe
Potential On Any Given Day Cannot Be Confidently Ascertained
Attm...And Thus No Threat Areas Will Be Highlighted.

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