Severe Weather Threat Jun 12-16

Medium-Range Models Are In Broad/General Agreement That The Upper Pattern Will Remain Characterized By A Large Central U.S. Long-Wave Ridge Sandwiched Between Wrn Conus And Ern Conus Troughing Through The Latter Stages Of The Period.

Despite The Broad Agreement However...The Models Differ With Respect To Individual/Small-Scale Features Progged To Eject From The Wrn U.S. Trough And Progress Anticyclonically Ewd Across The Central U.S. Around The Nrn Fringe Of The Long-Wave Ridge.

The First Of A Series Of Such Small-Scale Features Is Forecast To Be
Crossing The Upper Midwest Day 4 /Wed. 6-12/...With Some Severe
Potential Evident Across Parts Of The Oh Valley Region.

For now...However...Potential Does Not Appear To Warrant Introduction Of A 30% Equivalent Threat Area.

This Feature Is Forecast To Move E Of The Appalachians And Then
Offshore Day 5 /Thu. 6-13/ -- Again Bringing Some Severe Threat To
The Ern U.S. But Insufficient To Warrant Outlook Area Issuance Attm.

Beyond Day 5...Progression Of The Smaller-Scale Features Into The
Central U.S. -- And Evolution Of The Long-Wave Ridge In Response --
Becomes Much Less Certain/Predictable. As Such...Areas Of Severe
Threat Cannot Be Confidently Ascertained Now.


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