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Severe Weather Threat Jun 11-15

Medium-Range Models In Generally Good Agreement Day 4 /Tue.
6-11/...With Both Ejecting A Small/Compact Vort Max Into The
Central/Nrn High Plains Region During The Afternoon And Evening.

However...With Larger-Scale Subsidence/Ridging Prevailing Across The Plains Otherwise...Current Indications Are That Storm Development Will Likely Remain Isolated At Best Within The Most Favorable Zone Of Shear And Instability Across The Neb Vicinity Just Ahead Of The Surface Low. While Greater Convective Coverage Will Likely Occur N Of The Low Into Parts Of The Dakotas...Weaker Shear And Instability Should Act To Limit Severe Potential In This Area To Some Degree -- And Thus No 30% Equivalent Outlook Areas Will Be Issued Attm.

Beyond Day 4...More Substantial Differences In The Models Begin To
Emerge.

Some Severe Threat Is Apparent Day 5 Into The Upper Midwest
Region...As The Vort Max Crossing The Plains Day 4 Takes A Sern Turn As It Shifts E Of The Main Ridge.

However...Orientation/Location Of The Associated Surface Front Is Depicted Quite Differently Between The Gfs And Ecmwf -- Primarily Due To Large Differences In The Upper Pattern Across Ern Canada.

With These Differences Continuing Across The Ern Third Of The Conus The Remainder Of The Period...And With Large-Scale Ridging To Become Re-Established More Strongly Across The Central States/Plains Region...Confidence That Severe Potential Will Become High Enough On Any One Day This Period Remains Low.


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