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Severe Weather Threat July 19-23

Models/Ensembles Are In Generally Good Agreement Depicting The
Continued Amplification/Intensification Of The Large Scale Flow
Across The Great Lakes And Northeast Through Fri And Sat/ Days 4 And 5. However...Dprog/Dt Loops Suggest A Trend Toward A Slower Ewd Progression To The Upper Trough And Subsequent Frontal Passage From The Oh Valley East Across The Mid-Atlantic And New England. Thus...Areal Outlines For Days 4 And 5 Have Been Adjusted Slightly Wwd From The Prior Outlook.

D4/Fri...

Amplification Of The Large Scale Flow Will Aid In Cold Frontal
Advance Into A Very Moist And Moderately Unstable Airmass From Srn
Wi/Nrn Il Across Lower Mi And The Ern Great Lakes On Fri/Day 4.

Warm And Very Moist Pre-Frontal Airmass Should Be Characterized By Sbcape Of 1200-1700 J/Kg With Locally Greater Instability Possible. Lift Along And Ahead Of The Cold Front Will Be Supported By Modest Height Falls As A Strong Upper Trough Contributes To Deepening Surface Low From James Bay To Adjacent Areas Of Quebec. Bands Of Convection Preceding The Cold Front Should Organize Into Line Segments With The Chance For Damaging Winds Increasing As Deep-Layer Wind Fields Strengthen Coincident With The Frontal Advance And Diurnal Destabilization.

D5/Sat...

A Continuation Of The Organized Severe Weather Threat Will Spread
East Across The Northeast On Sat.

Upper Trough Will Continue To Deepen/Amplify With A Sharp Frontal Zone Advancing Ewd/E-Sewd Into Increasingly Unstable Airmass During The Day. After A Lull In More Widespread Severe Weather Threat From Late Friday Night Into Saturday Morning...Storms Will Increase In Coverage And Intensity As Pre-Frontal Airmass Destabilizes. Line Segments Along And Ahead Of The Front Will Again Pose A Threat For Damaging Winds From The Ern Great Lakes To New England And South To The Upper Oh Valley And Delmarva Region. Shear/Forcing Will Be Weaker With Swd/Swwd Extent Along The Front But May Be Compensated To Some Extent By Degree Of Potential Destabilization. Cold Front Should Move Across The Northeast U.S. Coast During Sunday Morning.

D6 And Beyond...

Trailing Frontal Zone Will Likely Provide A Focus For An Increase In
Storms Over The Mid-Atlantic To Southeast Through Late In The
Weekend And Next Week. However...The Boundary Will Become More
Diffuse And Farther Removed From Stronger Flow/Shear With Time.


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