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Severe Weather Threat July 18 Thursday

Ern Nd To Nrn Lower Mi...

Several Episodes Of Vigorous Deep Convection Can Be Expected Across These Areas Thu Into Early Fri.

Moisture Transport Into/Across Pre-Existing/Stalled Frontal Zone From Vicinity Of Ls Wwd To Nd Will Likely Support Scattered Storms Early In The Period With Greatest Mcs Hail/Wind Potential Across Nd Early. More Scattered Storms East Across The Great Lakes May Act To Locally Enhance The Frontal Boundary With Stronger Heating Occurring Away From Early Convection Resulting In Areas Of Greater Destabilization..Will Prove Favorable For Organized Storms/ Supercells With Both Large Hail/Damaging Winds And Perhaps Even A Developing Tornado Threat.

With Time...Expect That Forcing...Shear...And Instability Near The
Frontal Wave/Warm Front...And Ahead Of Advancing Cold Front...Will
Lead To An Mcs Or Two Taking Form Across The Arrowhead Of Mn Ewd To Parts Of Nrn Lower Mi. Given Amplification/Strengthening Of The Mid/Upper Flow...And 50-60kt Mid-Level Jet Directed Preferentially
Into/Across The Mcs Genesis Region...Damaging Wind Threat May
Persist Across Parts Of The Region Into Early Friday.

Northeast...

Residual Frontal Zone Amidst Strong Diurnal Destabilization Should
Spur A Few Strong To Severe Storms Through The Afternoon From Ny
Into Nrn Pa. Generally Weaker Large Scale Support In The Form Of
Deep Ascent And Lack Of Stronger Flow Aloft Should Keep Overall
Severe Potential Limited.


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