Severe Weather Threat July 17 Wednesday

Mid/Upper Ridging Covering Much Of The Center Of The Conus Is
Forecast To Weaken Somewhat Through Midweek. A Number Of Weak Disturbances Will Orbit The Srn Periphery Of The Upper Ridge... Drifting Wwd From The Carolinas...The Srn Plains And Desert Sw. Elsewhere...A Pacific Short Wave Trough Will Move Inland And Across The Nrn Rockies With Modest Height Falls Acting On Modest Instability Across Parts Of Wrn Mt During Wed Afternoon.

Nern Ny And Nrn New England...

Abundant Moisture And Steepening Low Level Lapse Rates Will
Contribute To The Development Of Strong Instability Ahead Of A Cold
Front Moving Toward The St. Lawrence Valley By Wed Afternoon. Weak Height Falls And Strengthening Mid-Level Flow Across Srn Quebec Should Support The Development Of Progressive Clusters And/Or Lines Of Convection Spreading Esewd Into Instability Axis Across Nern New York And Nrn New England Through Late Afternoon/Early Evening. Damaging Wind Potential Should Accompany A Few Of The Stronger/More Persistent Storms Into The Late Evening.

Nd Across Wrn Great Lakes...

There Will Likely Be At Least Two Opportunities For More Robust Tstm Development Along And South Of The Stalled Frontal Zone Across The Region.

The First Will Develop As Heating Of The Day Acts To Boost
Instability Along And South Of The Boundary From Nrn Mn Across Nrn
Wi. While The Region Will Likely Lie On The Fringe Of Larger Scale
Height Falls Associated With The James Bay Upper Trough Moving Away From The Area...Degree Of Instability And Generally Weak Capping Should Contribute To Scattered Severe Storms With Wind Damage Being The Primary Threat. Other Than The Residual Front And Diurnal Heating...The Generally Weak Forcing And Marginal Shear During The Daytime Hours Suggest That This Convection Will Be Multicellular In Nature With Severe Potential Enhanced By Lake Breezes And Storm Mergers.

The Second Opportunity For Scattered Strong To Severe Storms Along The Remnant Front May Develop Into The Evening And Overnight As Low Level Mass Inflow Across The Boundary Strengthens Through Nocturnal Increase In Low Level Jet And Lift/Forcing With The Next Upstream Short Wave Emerging Across The Nrn Plains. Bulk Of This Convection...Especially Over Nd Late...Will Likely Be Rooted Above The Boundary Layer And Pose Some Threat For Large Hail Into Early Thursday Morning.


Pockets Of Stronger Instability Are Expected To Precede A Short Wave
Trough That Will Dampen Upper Ridge Across Wrn Mt Through The Day. Stronger Mid-Level Flow Around 40kt Will Coincide With A Maximum In Instability And Terrain Influences During The Afternoon To Result In At Least An Isolated Severe Storm/Supercell Threat. The Best Chance For Organized Storms With Large Hail And High Wind Potential Will Likely Occur Across Wrn Mt During The Afternoon Before Stronger Forcing For Ascent Lifts Nwd Into Canada.

Intermountain West To Southwest Deserts...

Scattered Convection Across The Higher Terrain Of The West Will
Reach Greatest Coverage And Intensity During The Afternoon With
High-Based Convection Posing Some Chance For Isolated Strong To
Damaging Wind Gusts. Lack Of Stronger Flow And Forcing Will Likely
Keep Severe Potential Limited In Most Areas.

Srn Appalachians Swwd...

Weak Wwd-Moving Perturbation Undercutting Upper Ridge In Concert
With Differential Heating Across The Srn Appalachians Should Promote Scattered Tstm Development Through The Afternoon. Marginal Organizing Influence Of The Mid/Upper Impulse May Contribute To Scattered Pulse/Multicell Storms Moving Into Moderately Unstable Airmass Across The South. A Few Damaging Wind Events Appear Possible.

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