Severe Weather Threat Jul 9-13

Models Remain In General Agreement Regarding Evolution Of Synoptic Pattern Through At Least Day 6 Indicating Upper Trough Will Amplify Over Ern U.S. While The Upper Ridge Holds Firm Over Much Of The Wrn Two Thirds Of The Country.

Day 4 /Tuesday/ Shortwave Trough Forecast To Be Over The Nrn Plains Early Tuesday Will Drop Sewd...Reaching The Wrn Great Lakes Tuesday Night. Severe Storms Will Be Possible From The Cntrl And Nrn Plains Into The Upper Ms Valley And Maybe Wrn Great Lakes As Upper Trough Interacts With The Moist Boundary Layer. Confidence In Where A 30% Or Greater Area Will Exist Is Somewhat Reduced By The Likelihood Of Ongoing Mcs/Storms Over Portions Of This Region.

Day 5 /Wednesday/ The Shortwave Trough Is Forecast To Phase With A Nrn Stream Impulse With A Closed Upper Low Evolving Over The Great Lakes Region. Attendant Cold Front Will Continue Sewd Through The Great Lakes And Into The Oh Valley. At This Time It Appears The Stronger Shear Will Remain In Post Frontal Region. However...A Few Strong To Severe Storms Will Be Possible From The Srn Great Lakes Into The Oh Valley And A Part Of The Nern States. Other Strong To Severe Storms Will Be Possible Within Developing Upslope Regime Over The Cntrl High Plains. Confidence In A 30% Coverage Area Is Not Particularly High At This Time.

Day 6 /Thursday/ While A Few Strong To Severe Storms Cannot Be Ruled Out Along And Ahead Of The Front From Portions Of The Nern States And Mid Atlantic...It Still Appears The Stronger Winds Aloft And
Vertical Shear Will Remain North Of The Warm Sector Within An
Expected Modest Thermodynamic Environment. Overall Threat Does Not Appear To Warrant A 30% Coverage Area At This Time.

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