Severe Weather Threat Jul 5-12

Fri Jul 5 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

At Sfc...Weak Cold Front Now Moving Ewd/Sewd Across Dakotas Is
Expected To Shift Ewd Over Much Of Mn.

Nern Conus...

Widely Scattered To Scattered Tstms May Develop Mainly During Aftn ...With A Few Stronger Cells Offering Localized Wind/Hail Risk.
Persistent Plume Of Deep-Tropospheric Moisture Transport Is Expected To Persist Through This Period From Ern Gulf Across Srn/Central Appalachians To Lower Great Lakes. A Few Organized Multicells And Brief Supercell Structures Are Possible.

Nrn High Plains To Nrn Great Basin...

Widely Scattered Tstms Should Develop During Aftn And Early Evening Invof Aforementioned Frontal Segments Over Mt...Swrn Sd...Nrn Wy...And Sern Id...As Well As S Of Front Across Portions Nrn Ut And Nv. Isolated Large Hail And Svr Gusts May Occur.

Srn High Plains To Srn Nm/Far W Tx...

Widely Scattered Tstms Should Develop On Higher Terrain Of Both Mtns And Adjacent Plains This Afternoon...Moving Swd To Swwd With Potential For Isolated Damaging Gusts And Svr Hail.

Portions Mn/Nwrn Wi...

Band Of Tstms Should Develop By Late Aftn Along Frontal Segment Near And Sw Of Dlh Area...Into Portions Central/S-Central Mn. Large Hail And Isolated Stg-Svr Gusts Are Possible From Most Intense Cells
Within This Band. Threat Should Be Relatively Short-Lived.
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Sat Jul 6 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms For Part Of Nrn Plains to Upper Ms Valley...

Blocking Synoptic Pattern Will Persist Over Much Of The Country On
Saturday With An Upper Low Situated Over The Mid Ms Valley Region
Flanked By Upper Ridges Centered Over Wrn U.S. And Off The Atlantic
Seaboard.

Nrn Plains Through Upper Ms Valley...

Additional Storms Should Develop As The Atmosphere Destabilizes During The Afternoon In Weak Post Frontal Upslope Regime Over The Higher Terrain Of Wy And Mt...In Vicinity Of The Front From Cntrl Nd Into Wrn/Nrn Sd And Along Pre-Frontal Trough Swd Into Neb. Isolated Damaging Wind And Large Hail Will Be Possible.
A Strengthening Sly Llj May Promote Storms Evolving Into One Or More Clusters During The Evening As They Develop Toward The Upper Ms Valley.

Nern States...

Belt Of Stronger Winds Aloft Will Reside Along The Nwrn And Nrn
Periphery Of The Upper Ridge From A Portion Of The Oh Valley Into
The Nern States Supporting 35-45 Kt Effective Shear. A Few Storms May Develop During The Afternoon As The Cap Weakens And Pose A Modest Threat For Isolated Strong Wind Gusts And Possibly Some Hail.
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Sun Jul 7 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms For Part Of Nrn And Cntrl High Plains...

Blocking Pattern Will Persist Into Sunday...But Upper Low Over The
Mid Ms Valley Is Forecast To Finally Be Picked Up By Belt Of Wlys
Along Nrn Tier States And Continue Through The Oh Valley. An
Upper Ridge Will Remain Anchored Over Much Of The Srn Half Of The
Country. At The Sfc A Weak Cold Front Will Move Through The Upper Ms Valley Into The Wrn Great Lakes...But Trailing Portions Of This
Boundary Will Stall From Neb Wwd Into Srn Mt.

Nrn Rockies Into The Nrn And Cntrl High Plains...

Storms Will Likely Develop Over The Higher Terrain From Wrn Sd...Nrn Wy And Srn And Swrn Mt And Spread Ewd During The Day. Other Storms May Develop Farther South In Vicinity Of The Stalled Front. This Environment Should Support A Few Supercell Structures With Isolated Large Hail And Damaging Wind Gusts From Afternoon Into Mid Evening.
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Jul 8-12 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

Model Consensus Is That A More Typical Summer Pattern Will Evolve
During The Day 4-8 Period With Belt Of Stronger Wlys Over The Nrn
Tiers States And An Upper Ridge Persisting Over Much Of The Srn Two Thirds Of The Country.

Monday /Day 4/... Large Scale Ascent Accompanying The Progressive
Shortwave Trough As Well As Orographic Forcing Will Foster Storms
Developing Over The Higher Terrain And Spreading Ewd Through The
High Plains Within Ely Low-Level Flow Regime. 40+ Kt Effective Shear
Will Support Organized Storms And A Few Supercells.

Tuesday /Day 5/...Shortwave Trough And Attendant Cold Front Will
Continue Ewd Into The Upper Ms Valley Region. A Few Severe Storms
Will Be Possible Along/Ahead Of The Front Within A Unidirectional
Shear Profile That Will Be At Least Marginally Favorable For
Organized Severe Storms. This Area Will Probably Need To Be Included In Severe Probabilities In Later Updates.


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