Severe Weather Threat Jul 30 - Aug 3

Medium Range Models Indicate That A Prominent Subtropical High
Center...Developing Across The Southern High Plains By Early This
Coming Work Week...Likely Will Linger Through Much Of This Forecast Period.

On The Northern Periphery Of This Feature... Steepening Of Mid-Level Lapse Rates Associated With The Advection Of Warm Elevated Mixed Layer Air East Of The Higher Terrain... Coupled With Low-Level Moistening...Appear Likely To Contribute To An Increasingly
Favorable Thermodynamic Environment For Vigorous Convective
Development Across The North Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley
Region During The Middle To Latter Portion Of The Work Week.

Aided By Strengthening Shear And Focused Large-Scale Forcing For Upward Vertical Motion Associated With Perturbations Progressing Through This Regime...At Some Point It Appears That This Environment May Become Conducive To The Evolution Of One Or Two Organized Mesoscale Convective Systems Capable Of Producing Swaths Of Severe Wind Gusts.

Current Indications Are That This Is Most Probable During The Day
6-7 Time Frame...Thursday/Friday... Across Portions Of Southern
South Dakota/Northern Nebraska...Perhaps Adjacent Western Iowa.

However...Too Much Uncertainty Still Exists Concerning The Short
Wave Developments At This Extended Range...To Confidently Ascertain And Delineate A Regional Severe Threat Area.

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