Severe Weather Threat Jul 3-7

The Medium Range Models Begin The Day 4 To 8 Period With An
Upper-Level Trough Over The Ms Valley Extending Swwd Into The Srn

The Models Slowly Retrograde This Feature Wwd From Wednesday /Day 4 Into Thursday/Day 5.

The Models Weaken The Upper-Level Trough On Friday/Day 6.

To The East Of The System...A Moist Axis Should Be Located From The Gulf Coast States Nwd Into The Oh Valley Along Which Scattered Thunderstorms May Develop Each Day From Wednesday Through Friday.

The Models Suggest That Mid-Level Flow Will Not Be That Strong Along This Corridor Suggesting Any Severe Threat Will Be Isolated.

On Saturday/Day 7...Model Solutions Diverge With The Upper-Level Patterns But Are In Agreement That Low-Level Moisture Will Be In Place From The Ms River Ewd. Thunderstorms Would Again Be Possible Along The Moist Axis On Saturday.

At This Point...An Enhanced Severe Threat Is Not Expected In The Day 4 To 8 Period Mainly Due To Relatively Weak Wind Profiles That Are Forecast Across Much Of The Conus.

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