Severe Weather Threat Jul 24-28

A Mean Upper Trough Will Remain Across The Ern Conus With A Ridge Over The Wrn States.

Models Are In Fairly Good Agreement Depicting A Shortwave Trough Rounding The Wrn Ridge Into The Cntrl High Plains On Thu/D5 ...Ahead Of A Large Upper Low Which Will Develop Swd Into The Upper Ms Valley On Fri/D6. This Initial Shortwave Could Result In An Mcs From Swrn Neb Into Wrn Ks On D5...With A Threat Of Damaging Winds And Hail.

However...There Are Questions In Regard To Moisture And Instability...As The Initial Activity Could Be Producing Rain On The Cool Side Of The Synoptic Boundary...With Relatively Dry Surface Trajectories From High Pressure Across The Mo And Upper Ms Valleys. Still...A Localized Severe Threat Could Materialize...But Predictability Is Too Low Currently.

From Fri/D6 Into Sun/D8...This Lead Shortwave Trough Is Forecast To
Phase With The Large Low To The N...Which Will Eventually Spread Ewd Across The Great Lakes And Oh Valleys...And To The Atlantic Coast By D8.

While Some Severe Threat Will Likely Materialize Along The Actual Low Pressure Track...The Severe Weather Threat Is Not Expected To Be Particularly Widespread And Predictability Is Too Low For Any Outlook Areas.

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